Tariffs could force closure of 1,000 US printing companies by 2030

The US printing market has been projected to face a potential decline of 6.4 percent by 2030 due to tariffs, representing the closure of more than 1,000 companies, according to new research from Smithers.

The global authority on the printing industry released a white paper warning that impacts could reshape the global printing industry, with tariff collections reaching tens of billions of dollars.

'Impact of Tariffs on Printing' projected that global printing demand will reach 355.2 billion USD by 2030, but warned that growth could decline further by up to 3.1 percent in a pessimistic scenario.

Depending on the scenario, US printing consumption in 2030 could range from 78.6 billion USD to 84.7 billion USD, a swing of more than 6 billion USD driven by tariff-related uncertainty.

The research identified that segments such as commercial print and book printing face the steepest declines due to discretionary spending cuts and import reliance. Despite these pressures, packaging-related print is forecast to grow steadily, driven by the e-commerce and food sectors.

'Prices for US-manufactured paper and inks will be affected by imported raw materials, and there is not enough US capacity for printing papers, inks and plates in the short term,' the report stated.

Export of used sheetfed offset hardware will be impacted as much of this is destined for India and China, where tariffs remain high. Printers and suppliers could be forced to explore reshoring and regional hubs to mitigate future tariff risks.

The research found that brands and converters are increasingly adopting a 'Plus One' strategy, diversifying their sourcing beyond China to mitigate future trade risks, with Southeast Asia and Latin America emerging as key alternatives.

Smithers built three robust scenarios - baseline, pessimistic and optimistic - to assess the impact of tariffs on key printing end-use printing markets, print processes and geographies. Every step was assessed by the team of print and packaging subject matter experts using IMF and USITC data.

To find out more about the Impact of Tariffs on Packaging white paper, please contact Bill Allen: ballen@smithers.com