Global folding carton demand forecast to reach 63.1 million tons by 2030

Global consumption of cartonboard will reach 56.3 million tons in 2025, valued at 58.9 billion USD, according to research from Smithers, with conversion into 52.4 million tons of packaging valued at 132.8 billion USD.

The research provider's report 'The Future of Folding Cartons to 2030' projects that demand will push global consumption of folding cartons to 63.1 million tons in 2030, with value increasing to 159.6 billion USD at constant pricing. Demand for cartonboard and microflute packaging is driven by global sustainability trends, with a marked shift away from plastic packaging formats in favor of paper-based alternatives and general growth in demand from emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region and Africa.

Smithers analysis identifies applications where cartonboard is poised to take market share from plastics, including collation and shrink-wrap films used in consumer multi-packs, trays for fresh produce and foodservice applications and development of all-paper blisters for products like stationery.

Growth will be highest in confectionery, chilled food, foodservice, soft drinks and beer segments. The greatest share of increased incremental demand across 2025 to 2030 will come from healthcare customers, reflecting mainly new sales into developing regions of Asia accompanied by design innovation in mature markets.

Folding boxboard and coated recycled board or white-lined chipboard remain the most widely used folding carton grades, together accounting for 83.8 percent of contemporary demand. From 2025 to 2030, folding boxboard will continue to grow market share with new paper machines coming online in Brazil, China and elsewhere in Asia. Extra capacity for solid bleached board or sulfate is also coming on stream supporting further sales over this period, while sales of solid unbleached board or sulfate and uncoated recycled board grades will continue to track below the market average.